Indonesia's Crackdown on Illegal Mining Sparks Supply Concerns SHFE Tin Closes Strongly Higher in Afternoon Session [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the midday of September 30, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2511) closed at 275,130 yuan/mt, up 0.96%. It once surged to 283,000 yuan/mt during the session, hitting a new high since April 3, before paring some gains and hovering at highs overall. Overnight, LME tin performed strongly, closing at $35,455/mt, up 2.79%, leading the gains in the base metal market. However, during the Asian trading session today, LME tin pulled back to $35,040/mt, reflecting subtle shifts in market sentiment ahead of the holiday.

The current tin price increase was mainly driven by sudden supply-side disruptions. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal mining sites in the Bangka-Belitung province and a comprehensive blockade of smuggling channels on September 29. As the world's second-largest tin producer, Indonesia's refined tin production in 2024 had already fallen to less than 50,000 mt, the lowest in over 20 years, and this crackdown further intensified market expectations of global tight tin supply. At the same time, the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar remained slow, and domestic supply from mines in Yunnan and other regions continued to be tight, jointly forming a solid floor for tin prices.

As the last trading day before the National Day holiday, market trading was relatively sluggish today, with some profit-taking funds choosing to exit and wait. In the afternoon, market attention should focus on fluctuations in the US dollar index and the price trend of LME tin. In the short term, expectations of a supply gap and policy support effects together constitute upward momentum for tin prices, but caution is needed against the risk of a pullback if post-holiday demand verification falls short of expectations.